AGP Executive Report

BESS Supply Chain: Wood Mackenzie says Chinese system integrators captured 76% of the global BESS integrator market in 2025, with competition shifting from scale to grid-forming tech, software optimization, and financing support. Energy Markets: Shell forecasts global LNG demand to rise about 65% by 2050 to nearly 700 million tonnes a year, while 2026 trade stays roughly flat as shipping disruptions ease. EU vs China Trade: Goldman warns Europe’s growth drag is driven more by China winning “third-market” share than by the bilateral trade gap, especially in transport equipment and industrial machinery. Malaysia Macro Outlook: IPP Financial Advisers keeps Malaysia’s 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.6%, citing resilient domestic demand and AI/data-centre investment. US Market Calendar: Wall Street closes July 3 for Independence Day and reopens July 6. Retail Demand Signal (HK): Hong Kong retail sales rose 7.9% in May, extending a 13-month streak, helped by mainland visitor inflows. India Autos Shift: Bajaj’s petrol growth lagged while its EV push accelerated, highlighting a widening split between ICE and electrification strategies. Nigeria Equities: Nigeria’s NGX saw another heavy sell-off, with profit-taking wiping about N2.39tn off market value. Corporate Moves: Valmet completed its Severn Group acquisition to expand flow control and severe-service capabilities. Wealth Advisory (Singapore): Great Eastern won MAS approval to let accredited advisers advise on securities and structured products for HNW clients. Tech/AI Finance: Meta shares jumped on plans to sell AI compute, stirring cloud-market expectations.

Macro Watch: Global markets were steady as investors digested central-bank chatter at the ECB’s Sintra forum, with the Fed’s Kevin Warsh signaling no “forward guidance” while US manufacturing stayed near a four-year high but with softer prices paid; ADP showed private payroll growth of 98k in June, below forecasts, ahead of the official jobs report. AI & Credit: Amundi’s Guy Stear argues market drawdowns may be capped around 15% in the AI era, while Wall Street debate continues over whether hyperscaler borrowing is crowding out Treasuries—so far corporate bond spreads look resilient. UK Listings Pressure: Peel Hunt warned of “rapid depopulation” in London as takeover bids dwarf new IPOs, with more UK firms choosing US listings. US Finance Product Push: SoFi launched small-business loans, and MeridianLink named new revenue and transformation chiefs to accelerate AI-led growth. Cloud Competition: Meta is reportedly planning to sell surplus AI compute, potentially turning it into a direct cloud rival. Trade & Agriculture: USMCA talks continue after the US said it won’t renew the deal in its current form, while corn growers urged targeted improvements; Irish agricultural machinery sentiment in 2026 looks upbeat mainly on grassland demand. Regional Growth: COMESA seeks deeper Tunisia integration to boost trade and investment, and Nigeria’s Shettima urged states to unlock local growth. Consumer/Industry Forecasts: Citrus flavors are projected to grow to $2.3B by 2033; electric vehicle rentals to $34.6B by 2033; and multiple healthcare/automation market reports point to continued expansion.

Frontier Market Backlash: Nigeria’s FTSE Russell pause on its Frontier upgrade has sparked criticism from local brokers, with ASH0N arguing market upgrades need smooth infrastructure and operator coordination. Crypto Regulation & Malta: With MiCA fully kicking in, Malta is seeing renewed investor focus on BTC as rules push standardization and transparency. Capital Markets Push: Bangladesh merchant bankers welcomed budget incentives for IPOs, zero-coupon bonds, dividends and mutual funds to lift confidence and deepen the market. Banking Strategy: A Simon-Kucher push urges banks to use data-driven pricing as a growth lever, not just rate-following discounts. Construction Shift in Abu Dhabi: ADCCI says the sector is moving from volume builds to higher-value, modular, tech-enabled delivery. AI Data Centre Supply: Vertiv ramps power/cooling manufacturing in Johor to meet rising AI rack densities. Macro Signals: German and French manufacturing PMIs edged into growth, but uncertainty tied to the Middle East and supply chains remains. Housing Watch: UK annual house price growth picked up to 2.2% in June, while buyers elsewhere adopt wait-and-see as rates and confidence wobble. Tech Deal: IQM completes its merger with Real Asset Acquisition Corp; Nasdaq trading starts July 2. Media & Content: Media City Qatar launched GCC/MENA insight papers on creator economy trends, including micro drama and video podcasting.

China Business Sentiment: CCPIT says foreign firms remain upbeat on China’s growth, citing 92% of US companies profitable in 2025 and most European/Japanese firms planning to expand or maintain operations. Markets Wrap: US stocks stayed risk-on into quarter-end with tech leading while Treasuries slid and oil eased amid ongoing US-Iran talks; Pakistan’s PSX pushed the KSE-100 back above 180,000. Crypto & Regulation: The SEC opened public comment on “novel ETFs” tied to crypto and prediction markets, while Meta reportedly weighed buying Kalshi before building its own play-money prediction app. Prediction Markets Risk: Polymarket disclosed a ~$3m frontend hack via a third-party vendor, and Texas physicians urged safeguards for adolescents using prediction platforms. Fintech & Growth Capital: Conexus backed Vancouver fintech JUDI.AI to expand cash-flow underwriting for small business lending; AEVEX named a new Chief Growth Officer. Real Assets & Housing: Australia’s Townsville home prices edged up while major cities softened; New Orleans downtown office occupancy remains stuck below 80%. Energy & Industry: EON Resources outlined a 2026-2030 capex plan to reach 10,000 bpd by 2030; Sygnum Europe scaled EU access under MiCAR. Food & Consumer Trends: Aldi topped Morning Consult’s most trusted grocer list; Summer Fancy Food highlighted protein-heavy product launches.

Malaysia IPO Watch: Liftech Group Bhd, an ACE Market debutant, says it’s targeting growth in Malaysia’s semiconductor, aerospace and data-centre buildout, using IPO proceeds to expand in Penang and open a Kota Kinabalu facility for East Malaysia. India Clean Power for Data Centres: Gentari India’s Abhishek Goyal flags data centres as a major new demand centre for renewables, citing forecasts that could reach multi-GW power demand by early 2030s. Packaging Materials Outlook: A new report pegs global packaging coatings at $4.9bn by 2030, driven by flexible packaging demand, while warning environmental rules could pressure costs. Qatar Property Activity: Qatar logged QR1.73bn in May real-estate deals across 425 transactions, with Doha leading by value and Al Rayyan busiest by volume. Prediction Markets Policy: New Jersey lawmakers advanced a bill to tax prediction-market operators at 9%, setting up a fresh regulatory fight. EV Expansion: BYD’s New Zealand dealer network is set to jump to 25 sites after orders surged 871%, as it pushes right-hand-drive models into a tariff-free market. Crypto Market Narrative: MicroStrategy’s “liquidity flexibility” comments keep splitting Bitcoin traders between “controlled balance-sheet risk management” and “hidden selling” fears. Healthcare Access: Australia’s PBS adds new treatments from July 1, capping patient costs at $25 per script (or $7.70 with concession). Autonomous Mobility Trials: Neolix won Malaysia approval to start public-road Level 4 delivery trials in Cyberjaya under a regulatory sandbox.

US Markets Rally: Nasdaq surged more than 2% as semiconductors led after South Korea unveiled an $880B plan for chips and AI, while memory stocks steadied after early pressure. Prediction Markets Under Fire: New Jersey advanced a ban on election betting via prediction markets and set licensing/taxes for operators, while Kalshi and Polymarket kept pushing World Cup promos and faced growing regulatory scrutiny. Energy & Commodities: US natural gas slid as supplies stayed ample despite hotter-weather forecasts; lithium demand is rebounding on fast-growing battery storage needs. Geopolitics Hits Housing: Iran war drag is keeping Canada’s housing market stagnant as higher rates and shipping disruptions feed inflation risk. Middle East Growth Outlook: Kuwait expects a gradual easing as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but revised down oil and GDP growth for 2026 and a wider fiscal deficit. Africa Trade & Logistics: Nigeria urged states to use AfCFTA for industrial growth; Kenya signed a deal to regain Rwanda’s fuel transit market from Tanzania. Corporate Moves: Rocket Lab agreed an $8B acquisition of Iridium to expand satellite communications; Bernstein flags consolidation and takeover risk for Kalshi/Polymarket. Sports Betting Policy: A separate push in Arizona targets prediction markets amid claims they siphon money from local economies.

Regulation & Markets: Nepal’s Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle swore in the new SEBON chairman, Gopal Prasad Bhatta, urging investor protection, capital-market reforms with clear timelines, and action against rumors that spook small investors. Macro Outlook: S&P Global lifted eurozone and UK 2026 inflation forecasts but trimmed eurozone growth, expecting limited further rate hikes. Energy Policy: Malaysia’s Gas Association says a fully liberalised gas market needs the RM35 power-sector price cap removed to attract more international players and boost competition. Capital Markets & Listings: Spain’s Digi set for a multi-exchange debut after raising ~€136m net proceeds to expand fiber and build its own mobile network. Corporate Earnings: Prosus reported 84% profit growth on its AI-powered ecosystem strategy, with dividends up 40% and buybacks returning capital. Auto & Consumer Demand: Cox Automotive expects GM/Ford/Tesla to lose U.S. market share in Q2 even as overall new-vehicle sales stay resilient. Food & Trade: Rabobank says Dutch seafood consumption is shifting toward aquaculture (about half of consumption), driven by wild-catch constraints and changing retail habits. Local Growth: Watkins Glen’s new farmers market launches this summer, aiming to support local growers and small businesses.

Residential Property Recovery (Philippines): BSP data shows nationwide residential property prices rose 5.6% in Q1 2026, rebounding from prior declines, led by Metro Manila (+10.4%) as lending remains tight. Market Caution (Philippines): Even after a US-Iran peace deal, investors are urged to stay wary as inflation and higher rates keep the PSE benchmark near key support. Farm Economics (US): Farmers at Beloit’s market say higher fuel, seed and fertilizer costs plus erratic weather are forcing price changes and adaptation. Leverage Risk (US markets): Bloomberg flags rising borrowing costs tied to margin and levered products, warning it could amplify the next downturn even as volatility looks muted. AI Export Shuffle (Asia): New frontier AI launches in China and Japan arrive as US export restrictions reshape who can access top US models. Desert Farming Economics (UAE): Research finds closed-loop hydroponics isn’t automatically better; payback depends on what’s grown and local economics. Telecom Competition (New Zealand): Satellite broadband is reshaping rural competition, with Starlink now 27% of rural connections. Caribbean Growth Play (Hospitality/Wellness): JACANA is bundling products, therapies and experiences for a wellness-tourism boom, while Mondrian is turning Hyatt’s Cancun property into an all-inclusive. Capital Markets Pressure (Zimbabwe): ZIMRA’s tougher tax enforcement could deter listings, threatening market depth. World Cup Trading Hype (Global): Prediction-market promos and sportsbook bonuses are driving heavy engagement around South Africa vs Canada.

Retail Jobs & Expansion: Urban Outfitters is adding capacity at its Navy Yard HQ, opening a new 117,000-sq-ft photo studio and planning 450 more hires in Philly plus a Bucks County facility by 2028. Digital Infrastructure Growth: Qatar’s ICT market is forecast to more than double to QR137.63bn by 2031 as 5G, sovereign cloud, and AI language models ramp up. Finance Reform Watch: Deloitte warns India’s debt market needs structural fixes to fund the next growth phase, citing weak liquidity, muted yield signals, and pricing gaps. Payments Tech: NPCI says AI will drive the next wave of UPI growth—pushing toward 1B daily transactions, improving fraud detection, and enabling voice/multilingual onboarding. Crypto & Markets: XRP traders focus on whether $1 support breaks; meanwhile, Grayscale argues selling $3B in BTC could restore confidence. World Cup + Digital Assets: FIFA’s Kraken deal and prediction-market trading keep turning matches into a crypto magnet. Asia Economy & Property: Philippines approved a record 2027 budget while Singapore rents eased in May as supply improved. Travel Trade: WTE Miami opens registration for Oct 27-28, targeting 7,000 buyers and 500 exhibitors.

RBNZ Outlook: ANZ says the Reserve Bank of New Zealand still plans three OCR hikes (July, September, October) to 3%, even after oil prices fell faster than expected; it also forecasts house prices drifting 2% lower this year. Housing & Risk: Canada’s extreme-weather claims are pushing home insurance costs higher, with insured catastrophic losses averaging nearly $2B a year since 2009. Local Food Access: Columbia Farmers Market won a $37,500 grant to expand SNAP/WIC “healthy food prescription” tokens, while small-town markets in Mars and Melba keep growing despite weather and limited resources. Farm Policy: Rep. Adam Gray backed a $10B supplemental request for specialty crop growers as trade uncertainty and input costs squeeze Central Valley producers. Crypto & Markets: BitGo cut nearly 15% of staff to focus on stablecoins, security and settlement; meanwhile, prediction markets face fresh scrutiny as Polymarket and Kalshi expand. Global Macro/Tech: “Summer Davos” in Dalian pushed innovation-for-jobs themes, as investors weigh shifting growth priorities. Market Volatility: Nigeria’s NGX shed over N11T in June amid stock selloffs and regulatory uncertainty.

Agriculture & Food Security: China’s summer wheat harvest is 91.44% complete (310m mu by June 16), reinforcing grain stability as global food risks linger. Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny: Polymarket’s annualized revenue topped $1B, but regulators are probing prediction-market activity and insider-trading concerns keep rising; Hong Kong experts warn a ban would be hard to enforce. Sports Betting Expansion: Kalshi secured FIFA World Cup branding exposure via ADI Predictstreet, boosting sports-market visibility as trading volume surges. Kenya Pharma Growth: Registered pharmaceutical premises rose 53% since 2018 to 10,497, alongside a 70% jump in licensed pharmacy professionals. Rates & Energy Spillover: Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell as Strait of Hormuz shipping improved, easing oil-driven inflation fears. India Markets & Housing: Nifty faces resistance at 24,160–24,500; housing data points to limited affordability-driven momentum. East Africa Digital Integration: The EAC pushed a single digital market agenda at a Digital for Development forum to speed cross-border trade. Tokenization Push: BlackRock-backed Securitize targets a $400M NYSE debut via a merger.

Prediction Markets Clash: Illinois faces a federal court fight as Kalshi sues to block new sports-bet taxes and rules, arguing the CFTC should be the sole regulator—while Kalshi also ramps up World Cup branding via ADI Predictstreet. AI & Markets: OpenAI IPO chatter is rattling tech stocks, with reports advisers may delay the listing to 2027 amid uncertainty; meanwhile DraftKings launched its own prediction exchange (DKeX) to tighten control of trading economics. Data Centers & Growth: Wisconsin’s AI data-center boom is already driving over $1B in orders for local firms, even as many projects aren’t online yet—raising questions about long-term impact. Retail & Consumer Demand: Grocery expansion continues in Canada as Loblaws, Longo’s, T&T and others open new stores, while U.S. housing affordability remains stuck despite a cooling market. Trade Readiness: Malaysia boosts exporter compliance for China via technical support for testing, labeling and traceability. EV Policy Shock: Polestar is banned from U.S. sales starting with the 2027 model year under connected-vehicle rules targeting China-linked tech. Local Economy: Farmers markets keep returning as community hubs—from Lenoir City and Oxford to Meridian’s Night Market—showing steady demand for local food and makers.

AI Infrastructure & Semis Volatility: South Korea’s Kospi slid nearly 6% and hit another circuit breaker as chip selloffs erased gains after Micron’s rally. AI Market Access: Decibel launched on-chain perpetual trading for AAPL, META, MSFT, MSTR and LIT, letting traders react to earnings without market hours. Data-Center Supply Chain: Volex took a “conservative” stance on data-centre growth forecasts even as AI capex lifted revenue. India Macro & Rates: Goldman raised India’s 2026 growth view to 6.8% on lower oil and easing supply disruptions after a US-Iran peace deal. India Consumption & Retail: Redseer projects India’s grocery market to $992B by FY30, with e-commerce still only ~3% today. Vietnam Growth Plan: Vietnam amended its financial strategy to support 10%+ GDP growth, raising revenue targets and lifting deficit and debt ceilings. Capital Markets Link: Clearstream opened a Kenya domestic link to boost settlement access for Kenyan bonds and FX. Sector Forecasts: Plastic additives ($79.1B by 2030) and water treatment tech ($265.9B by 2030) both point to continued industrial demand.

Markets & Rates: U.S. stocks stayed choppy after May inflation pushed the Fed back into hike-or-hold focus, with PCE rising to 4.1% and traders leaning toward a September move. AI Chip Momentum: Micron surged on AI-driven memory demand, while Apple slid after MacBook/iPad price hikes; the tech split kept indexes volatile. Labor Signals: Initial jobless claims fell to 215,000, but continuing claims rose, hinting at a slower job-finding pace. Prediction Markets Go Mainstream: Kalshi is reportedly seeking funding at a ~$40B valuation as Meta explores a prediction-market app and regulators keep tightening rules. OpenAI IPO Delay: OpenAI pushed its IPO to 2027 amid market uncertainty and revenue readiness concerns, cooling confidence in a near-term valuation. Data Centers & Supply Chains: Russia approved two St. Petersburg data centers (22MW total), while investors also highlighted how data-center buildouts strain supply chains. Tokenized Finance: Ondo’s tokenized SpaceX equity (SPCXon) topped $10.9M market cap on launch day, underscoring on-chain demand. Sector Forecasts: Hybrid EV market is projected to reach $465.4B by 2033; soy protein is forecast to grow to $13.7B by 2033; seafood trade growth is set to ease over the next decade. Retail & Consumer Trends: UNFI flagged holiday demand shifts toward private label, fresh produce inspiration, and functional wellness.

Philippines IPO Watch: Mynt Inc.’s planned $1bn GCash-parent listing could pull more international money into the PSEi, with a potential index-basket boost for Ayala and Globe. Fed & Rates: The Fed’s June forecast keeps inflation sticky and raises the odds of hikes by year-end, pressuring equity valuations. Dubai Finance: DFSA says regulated entities jumped 16% in 2025 to 1,050, reinforcing DIFC’s growth push. Oil & Macro: Brent slid below pre-Iran-war levels as traders bet on oversupply easing geopolitical risk. South Africa REIT Update: Hyprop reaffirmed 10%-12% full-year growth in distributable income, citing strong liquidity and lower debt costs. Semiconductors & AI Infrastructure: Nvidia surged to lead data-center Ethernet switches by revenue, while Andes Technology said cumulative RISC-V SoC shipments topped 20bn. Trade & Logistics: Kalé acquired Portel to strengthen EU customs and ICS2 compliance. RegTech Funding: Kalipso raised $3.2m to automate regulatory change workflows. Crypto Volatility: Bitcoin retested lows near $60k amid regulatory and market-fear headlines. Consumer/Health Forecasts: Rare neurological disease treatments are projected to reach $43.7bn by 2036; skin boosters to grow to $4.0bn by 2033; ultrasonic skin-care devices to $1.12bn by 2033. Agrifood Policy: California updated cherry import rules to reduce blanket losses when fruit-fly positives occur.

Prediction Markets Legal War: The CFTC sued Kentucky to block state efforts to stop federally regulated prediction markets, escalating a broader U.S. crackdown fight. Big Tech Push Into Betting: Meta is building “Arena,” a standalone prediction market app overseen by Mark Zuckerberg, starting with play money to sidestep crypto at launch and challenge Kalshi/Polymarket. Kalshi vs Illinois: Kalshi filed a federal lawsuit against Illinois officials over a new law requiring licensing for sports-event contracts, arguing it violates federal CFTC authority. AI Chip Race: OpenAI and Broadcom are teaming on a custom AI chip (“Jalapeno”), adding pressure to Nvidia’s dominance as markets watch profitability and demand. Macro & Labor: Brazil’s formal labor market grew 3.6% y/y, with public-sector hiring driving gains. Housing Watch: Alabama’s housing market showed May momentum with sales up and inventory improving as mortgage rates eased slightly. Energy Costs: Brent oil is eyeing $70, putting pressure on freight fuel budgets. Retail Signal: Home Depot shares jumped over 5% on optimism tied to housing recovery.