AGP Executive Report

Mortgage & Housing Pressure: U.S. 30-year mortgage rates climbed to 6.81% last week, pushing loan demand lower as refinancing hits the weakest since mid-2025, while investors weigh Fed inflation credibility. India Market Microstructure: India’s Sensex rose while the Nifty stayed flat as a new Closing Auction Session mechanism drove divergence; crude easing and RBI steadiness helped, but FIIs sold. AI & Risk in Tech: Okta flagged a “gray market” for discounted AI model access, warning that prompt privacy can be exposed via proxy setups. Crypto Sentiment: Bitcoin whale wallets added roughly 190,000 BTC since June’s dip below $60K, even as price action stays range-bound. Energy & Clean Tech: GoodWe launched a smart solar inverter in Kenya to improve energy management and grid reliance; Aramco reported resilient cash flow and dividend support. Regional Growth Signals: Malaysia’s startup ecosystem climbed to the 31st–40th bracket, while Uzbekistan lifted its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.1% amid higher ambitions. Corporate Updates: Michael Page posted resilient H1 profits; Admiral’s H1 profit fell 18% on a soft UK motor market; LKQ expects aftermarket parts tailwinds as insurers push cost cuts.

Housing Cooling Signals: Edmonton’s hot market is easing as sales slip and inventory rises, with slower migration and weaker condo demand from international students. Mortgage Slowdown: Mortgage lending growth is near zero in May–June, with higher rates and economic uncertainty nudging investors to the sidelines. Office Real Estate: Ireland’s regional office take-up stayed resilient in H1 (Cork led with prime rent growth), while Melbourne’s office market is stabilizing but still faces high vacancy and policy uncertainty. REIT Recovery Mood: Multifamily REITs are growing more optimistic as renter demand holds and new supply crests. Clean Energy Industrial Push: Pakistan’s solar boom is shifting toward local manufacturing, skills, and stable policy to keep value at home. Prediction Markets Under Fire: US senators warn wildfire betting could spur arson; Utah’s anti-gambling stance survives a court challenge to Kalshi. Tech & Markets: Disney reaffirmed double-digit earnings growth and buybacks; Block lifted its 2026 gross profit forecast on Cash App momentum; Uber shares slid on guidance despite strong bookings. Global Growth Themes: China doubles down on consumption policy; adaptive reuse accelerates as cities tackle office vacancy and housing needs.

Medical & Consumer Growth: CVS lifted its 2026 profit outlook after a stronger Q2, helped by better drug mix and Aetna Star-rating bonuses, and it’s rolling out $29 MinuteClinic visits for weight-loss prescriptions tied to Lilly and Novo meds. Healthcare Demand Forecasts: Persistence Market Research projects rapid expansion across biomaterials (to $764.1B by 2033), preventive medicine (to $730.3M by 2033), and diagnostic enzymes (to $7.6B by 2033). AI & Enterprise Tech: Circana says U.S. B2B tech revenue rose 10% in H1 2026, with growth expected to moderate in H2; TransUnion finds a “confidence-readiness paradox” as marketers invest in AI but lack data/process foundations. Defense & Drones: ABI Research forecasts small UAS growth at 8% CAGR to 2035, with military procurement still the biggest driver while commercial use expands. EV Momentum: India’s EV market is projected to hit $191.04B by 2034, supported by charging buildout and battery growth; UK new-car registrations rose 11.7% in July with electrified demand driving the record. Markets & Corporate Signals: NYT shares fell after slower digital subscriber growth and a weaker digital revenue forecast; Seres accelerated a buyback but its stock remains range-bound, highlighting investor skepticism. Energy/Materials Micro-Trends: Malaysia rubber prices were mixed as EV demand and stable U.S. conditions offset higher inventories and seasonal production.

US Stocks Surge / AI Breadth: The S&P 500 hit a record as the “Roaring ’20s” rally broadened beyond mega-cap tech, with the Nasdaq up 2.6% and small caps also gaining. Fed & Rates Watch: Markets digested Warsh’s push for clearer inflation rules after the Fed held, while oil eased on US/Iran optimism. SpaceX Earnings: SpaceX reported nearly doubled quarterly revenue to $7.8B, with losses narrowing sharply, driven by Starlink and AI—though subscriber pricing pressure remains. AMD AI Momentum: AMD beat expectations with data center revenue up 107% YoY as Helios ramps, while gaming revenue fell 31% amid demand and cost pressures. Labor Market Debate: New Zealand’s unemployment print at 5.6% fed the jobs-vs-growth policy argument, while Oxford Economics warned the US “break-even” job creation rate may fall, changing how job losses signal weakness. Regional Finance Push: CARICOM is studying a regional stock exchange to reduce fragmentation and unlock cross-border capital for MSMEs. Prediction Markets Heat Up: Polymarket eyes a $20B valuation as crypto-native event trading expands, while regulators and lawmakers raise concerns about manipulation and wildfire betting. Energy & Infrastructure: India’s distributed renewables hit 31.5GW, rooftop solar leading; Europe’s FTTP rollout forecast has the UK overtaking Spain by 2028. Cybersecurity Trend: Liechtenstein’s beneficial-ownership register breach highlights growing risks for transparency databases. Local Market Disruption: Nigeria’s Onitsha market demolition cleared thousands of structures, reshaping small-business operations and street commerce. Malaysia Sports Tourism Plan: Malaysia is pitching a “Mega Sports Weekend” around F1 and other events to boost inbound travel and spending.

Big Tech & Markets: Amazon crossed the $3T market cap mark as AWS posted its fastest revenue growth in more than four years, lifting shares to a record high and reinforcing the AI infrastructure demand story. Corporate Earnings: Sysco guided FY27 adjusted EPS growth of 9%-11% and cited about $100m in efficiency gains from AI-powered process transformation, while McDonald’s saw slower same-store sales growth as budget pressure persists. AI & Finance: Citadel Securities expects up to $500B in AI-chip-related debt issuance by 2028, potentially reshaping investment-grade credit, and the AI-in-accounting market is projected to surge to $120.9B by 2033. Policy & Trade: Korea said it will review joining CPTPP to diversify exports, and Georgia’s growth plan from ADB centers on transport, clean energy, and private-sector development. Energy & Industry: Greece’s cooperative banks are expanding via digital payments and even a digital euro pilot, while India’s solar supply chain gets a boost from Shakti Pumps’ DCR-compliant module capacity timeline. Agriculture & Climate: The global table grape market faces record harvests but supply-chain and climate-driven price pressure. Housing: Mid-year checks show affordability still restrains activity, with some cities cooling while others stay hot.

Markets & Macro: US and Europe open buoyant as oil falls on renewed Middle East diplomacy hopes, easing bond pressure; tech leads with the Nasdaq up ~2% and Amazon jumping toward a $3T market cap, while UK stocks lag on AstraZeneca’s $400B Bristol-Myers Squibb deal worries. Housing (US mid-year snapshots): The market is “unwinding” after the 2020s-style frenzy, with affordability still the brake; examples show mixed momentum—St. Cloud median $295.7k (+1.5% YoY) with listings up, Asheville $443.4k (-1.6%) with sales up, Burlington sales down sharply (-21.8%), and Seattle down (-1.8%) with sales down (-6.5%). Housing (Australia): High rates and cost-of-living pressure keep weighing on prices, but regional areas hold up better; units are outpacing houses. Food & Agriculture: WOFEX Manila spotlights food security as supply chains and weather shocks reshape priorities; Utah launches a statewide food systems study to close access and supply-chain gaps. Finance & Capital Markets: Africa Bitcoin Corporation (ABC) plans a UK secondary listing on Aquis Growth Market and raises £250k for working capital. Insurance (Mid-market): A new captive-insurance push targets pricing gaps for mid-market commercial landlords. Energy & Metals: AuKing Mining moves forward on Malawi heavy rare earths as critical-minerals demand grows. Automotive Aftermarket: Messe Frankfurt and Frost & Sullivan renew their Automechanika knowledge partnership, forecasting 2026 aftermarket growth.

US Debt Strategy: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s team rebuffed Wall Street calls to change guidance on US Treasuries sales, as dealers expect “no increases” in issuance for several quarters while 30-year yields sit near multi-decade highs. Philippines Energy Reform: The World Bank urged faster power-sector reforms to cut electricity costs and reliance on imported fuel, warning the country remains exposed to global oil shocks. Malaysia Growth Outlook: MBSB Investment Bank and Kenanga both see Malaysia topping 5% growth in 2026, citing resilient consumption and exports, but flagging external risks from supply disruptions and tighter trade rules. Vietnam Trade Momentum: Vietnam’s Jan–Jul trade hit $659B (+28% YoY), with exports up 21.9% and imports up 34.5%, supported by machinery demand and FTA usage. India Manufacturing Soft Patch: HSBC’s India PMI eased to 53.5 in July (weakest since Aug 2021), though new export orders stayed in expansion. Apple Shock: Apple’s Q3 results beat on sales, but the stock slid as Wall Street focused on what the forecast implies for growth and services mix. Crypto/Policy Risk: Prediction-market traders are skeptical about near-term US-Iran talks, with Polymarket pricing low odds for an early start. Montreal Housing Cooling: Tardif Index fell to 24.5/100 for July, putting the market in “light buyer” territory as firm sales lag and listings expire. UK Manufacturing: The UK PMI stayed in growth but slowed to 51.9, with job creation near stagnation and confidence subdued. EV/Auto Signals: Leapmotor and Deepal both reported strong July delivery momentum, reinforcing the push by Chinese EV brands to scale exports.

Philippines Growth Watch: Economists expect Q2 GDP to slow to about 2.7% y/y as war-driven inflation bites, public infrastructure spending contracts, and private investment and consumption soften. Housing Downturn Signals: Australia’s home prices fell 0.7% in July (biggest monthly drop since Dec 2022), with Sydney and Melbourne leading declines; Canberra also slipped, while some buyers may find more value. Housing Wealth Repackaged: In Australia, downsizers and retirees are delaying moves and showing more interest in equity release as confidence shifts, though reverse mortgages carry rising interest-rate risks. Banking Snapshot: Newcastle Building Society reported resilient H1 growth, with pre-tax profit up to £15.1m, assets rising to £7.4bn, and mortgage lending improving. Prediction Markets Under Pressure: New York’s lawsuit against Kalshi and Minnesota’s stalled crackdown highlight intensifying political/regulatory friction around event-trading platforms. Retail/Fintech Momentum: Robinhood posted record Q2 revenue of $1.31bn, with event contracts surging to $156m (10x y/y) as prediction markets expand. Asia Tech Growth: Taiwan’s economy grew 12.9% in Q2, powered by AI-related export demand. China Stabilization Plan: China signaled a push to shift from old growth drivers to new ones, pairing proactive fiscal and accommodative monetary support to bolster employment and income. Energy & Commodities: Gold in Kuwait tracked global moves as US dollar and Treasury yields rose; meanwhile, shipping firms are adapting routes as Hormuz risk persists.

Wall Street Outlook: JPMorgan Private Bank expects the S&P 500 to rise about 10% to ~8,200 by mid-2027, arguing growth and AI demand can outweigh “inflation shocks.” AI & Jobs: Zoho founder Sridhar Vembu warns AI and data-center costs are diverting budgets away from hiring, limiting new IT job growth. Space Market Buzz: SpaceX’s IPO is fueling a new startup wave in orbit, while analysts still see big upside for SpaceX shares into 2027 despite the stock’s post-IPO slide. India Flows & Equities: Foreign investors reversed four months of selling with Rs 20,200 crore inflow in July, helped by valuations and improving earnings. Energy Growth: India’s solar capacity jumped to 162.15 GW by June 30, and solar tariffs fell sharply via competitive auctions; separately, Florida is emerging as a residential-solar exception after federal credit changes. Housing & Rates: Kelowna’s rental market is “out of balance” as purpose-built supply lifts vacancy and pushes affordability pressure. Geopolitics & Markets: Tehran fuel queues are growing amid US-Iran strike fears, adding volatility to related prediction markets. Tourism & Trade: Vietnam’s first-half trade hit $659bn (+28% YoY), with FTAs supporting exports. Policy Watch: RBI’s Aug. 5 decision is expected to keep the repo rate at 5.25%, with guidance in focus.

Apple Earnings Shock: Apple beat on iPhone and Mac sales but cut its outlook after supply-chain limits tied to advanced chip capacity, sending shares down and wiping about $500B in value. Crypto Market Pressure: Strategy authorized selling up to $5B of its Bitcoin to bolster cash and dividends, adding selling weight as broader sentiment stays in “fear.” Prediction Markets Crackdown: New York sued Kalshi, calling its prediction contracts illegal gambling and seeking to stop operations and recover alleged illegal gains. US Labor Outlook: A shrinking labor “breakeven” job-growth rate suggests unemployment could stay flat even with weak hiring as immigration restrictions and aging reshape the labor market. Asia Tech Momentum: Taiwan’s stock surge is being linked to AI-driven export demand, while critics flag geopolitical and demographic risks. Emerging Market Finance: Nigeria’s NGX praised Stanbic IBTC’s 30-year custody role for investor confidence and market safety. Policy & Growth Risks: India’s industrial outlook faces costlier imported inputs and weather risk, with global slowdown hitting exports and margins. Energy Project Watch: Suriname’s GranMorgu oil project is positioned for growth as Middle East tensions lift crude prices. Tax Rules Shift (ASX): Australia’s new capital gains tax changes from 1 July 2027 will alter how investors build portfolios, especially for shares. Local Growth & Trade: Telangana’s defence and aerospace MSME ecosystem is expanding, with calls for easier infrastructure access to scale India’s defence production.

Prediction Markets Crackdown: New York AG sued Kalshi, calling its prediction-market contracts illegal gambling and seeking shutdowns and restitution, as states and lawmakers intensify scrutiny of how odds are set and who benefits. Fed & Rates Jitters: Fed Chair Warsh left investors guessing on September hikes; Treasury yields jumped to 2007 highs, pressuring tech before Microsoft’s cloud-led surge helped markets rebound. Big Tech Earnings Momentum: Amazon shares jumped after AWS posted fastest growth in years, reinforcing AI spend despite mixed profitability fears; Microsoft also set a record one-day market-cap gain on Azure acceleration. AI/Space Finance Bet: Rocket Lab’s $8B plan to buy Iridium in 2027 sparked a bullish forecast that the combined company could be profitable and free-cash-flow-positive next year. Crypto Volatility Watch: XRP’s August outlook looks range-bound after a flat historical pattern, while broader crypto remains headline-sensitive to market moves. India Auto & Farm Equipment: Mahindra and Kia posted strong July sales growth; Nissan’s TEKTON SUV deliveries began, while tractor makers reported double-digit gains tied to improved rainfall and kharif momentum. Singapore Jobs: Employment rose for the 19th straight quarter, but retrenchments edged higher, keeping firms cautious. Hawaii Tourism Shift: Average visitor stays fell to the shortest since 2019, a warning sign for an industry that needs longer trips, not just higher daily spend.

Big Tech Earnings Shock: Apple slid nearly 10% after a forecast flagged component shortages tied to the AI data-center buildout, potentially wiping about $500B in value and shifting attention back to Nvidia. Cloud Momentum: Microsoft added nearly $450B in one day after stronger-than-expected cloud growth eased AI-spend fears, while Amazon surged as AWS hit its fastest growth in years and raised 2026 capex to $220B. Prediction Markets Crackdown: New York sued Kalshi, calling its prediction markets illegal gambling and seeking to block operations; the fight could reshape how sports and politics bets are regulated across states. Housing Watch: Canada’s CMHC expects prices to stay subdued through 2026 amid uncertainty and borrowing costs, while UK house-price growth slowed in July. Industrial Policy & Metals: Morocco pushed industrial decarbonization via energy audits, cleaner power in zones, and circular-economy rules; silver heads toward a sixth straight supply deficit as industrial demand outpaces constrained mine output. Local Market Signals: Victoria’s auction reserve-price disclosure changes are expected to make spring tougher for sellers.

Big Tech Earnings Lift Risk Appetite: Microsoft’s record one-day jump and upbeat Azure outlook helped pull US futures higher, while Amazon surged on faster AWS growth and AI monetization signals; Apple, meanwhile, warned of slower sales growth tied to supply issues. Macro Watch: US GDP growth slowed to 1.5% in Q2, missing expectations, keeping investors focused on jobs data and stubborn inflation; the Fed’s messaging also weighed on bonds and the dollar looked set for its worst week in three months. Rates, FX, and Crypto Spillovers: Japan held rates at 1% but yen buying and intervention fears boosted USD/JPY volatility, raising risk around the yen carry trade that supports leveraged crypto demand. Prediction Markets Under Fire: New York sued Kalshi, arguing prediction markets are illegal gambling without a license, adding regulatory uncertainty to a fast-growing sector. Labour and Demand Signals: Singapore’s labour market kept expanding for a 19th straight quarter with unemployment stable at 2.0%, while New Zealand forecasters pointed to unemployment rising as labour supply outpaces hiring. Corporate Growth Stories: Hershey posted higher sales and profit despite volume pressure; Dangote Cement lifted H1 profit 22.7% on stronger volumes; Proximus revenue slipped but added postpaid and broadband customers. Housing Outlook: US home prices are expected to plateau with modest gains as affordability and elevated mortgage rates limit demand.

US Macro Slowdown: US GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2, with a widening trade deficit and higher petrol costs weighing on growth while inflation eased to 3.5% y/y. Japan FX Shock: The yen jumped about 3% versus the dollar, with traders pointing to suspected Tokyo intervention ahead of the BOJ decision. Microsoft Earnings Surge: Microsoft added nearly $450B in one day after a stronger-than-expected cloud forecast, reinforcing AI-driven demand and easing capex worries. Amazon Cloud Momentum: Amazon’s Q2 beat was powered by AWS growth and AI demand, with the company lifting its capex outlook again. Prediction Markets Go Mainstream (MLB): Novig struck a multi-year exclusive deal with the New York Mets, bringing regulated sports trading into a major league spotlight. Regulatory/Market Structure: IG agreed to buy US prediction markets operator Underdog for up to $1.3B, while US states and courts continue to challenge the sector. Crypto Exchange Pressure: Coinbase shares slid after revenue and earnings missed despite record market share, as trading volumes and crypto prices weakened. Telecom Growth (Nigeria): MTN Nigeria neared N3T revenue in H1, driven by data services and rising smartphone penetration. Retail/Local Strain: Downtown Eau Claire saw another storefront closure as costs and consumer habits bite, highlighting pressure on small businesses.

AI & Semiconductors: Omdia lifted its 2026 semiconductor revenue forecast by 94.1% YoY, warning that AI demand is outstripping supply, with HBM, advanced packaging and leading-node capacity bottlenecks likely to persist into 2027. Big Tech Earnings: Microsoft beat on Q4 with Azure growth accelerating to 43% and Azure crossing $100B for FY26, while capex plans and free cash flow dipped—keeping investors focused on AI spending discipline. Memory Divergence: TrendForce expects DRAM supply to stay tight into 2027 as HBM demand rises, while NAND faces a looser 2H27 environment as new capacity ramps and consumer demand stays weak. Market Volatility: Wall Street reacted sharply to Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s rate-hold comments, with bond-market stress and a broader selloff wiping value in some sessions. Consumer & Retail: Pets at Home backed FY guidance after Q1 revenue growth, while Loblaw reported Q2 retail strength and continued e-commerce momentum. Municipal Finance: San Juan, Puerto Rico, plans a $122.2M muni bond debut, signaling renewed local-market access post-oversight era. Hospitality Expansion: Ascott accelerated Vietnam growth with nine new signings in 1H26, adding 3,200+ units and pushing openings from 2028.

Fed Watch: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh kept rates unchanged but stressed the end of forward guidance and rising term-premium worries, leaving markets to react to incoming data. Big Tech Earnings & Capex: Amazon heads into Q2 with AWS in focus as investors watch whether AI spending pays off; Microsoft stood out by holding its capex forecast steady, while Meta’s AI spending outlook kept pressure on sentiment. AI & Semis: SK hynix earnings disappointed despite record profits, adding to weakness in the AI trade and semis; meanwhile, Zuckerberg said personal AI agents could reach billions within five years. Prediction Markets Regulation: Robinhood’s prediction-market volume surged in Q2, while regulators and courts continue to clash with state bans and oversight. UK Auto Competition: Chinese automakers are intensifying price and EV pressure on the UK, forcing faster modernization from British rivals. Local Growth Signals: Garmin raised its outlook on strong wearables demand; Sprouts posted net sales growth but softer comps; and 16 Handles reported 30% same-store sales growth alongside rapid franchise expansion. Crime & Enforcement: New Zealand police shut down 14 cannabis grow houses in Rotorua, arresting 16. Infrastructure Forecasts: Dell’Oro expects 5G to keep driving microwave backhaul demand for two more years.