AGP Executive Report

IMF Watch: The IMF cut India’s FY27 growth forecast to 6.4% on higher energy prices, while keeping FY28 at 6.7% as the shock fades; ADB Macro: ADB also trimmed developing Asia’s 2026 growth to 4.9% from 5.5%, blaming Middle East-linked energy disruptions and lifting inflation to 4.3%; Markets & Risk: Crypto sentiment swung with US-Iran ceasefire headlines—Bitcoin and Ethereum sold off, then quickly rebounded as the “deal” narrative returned; Auto Trade: China’s passenger car exports jumped 80% in June on EV demand, while domestic sales fell 26% amid price wars; Capital Markets: Nigeria landed on S&P Dow Jones’ 2027 frontier-market watchlist as regulators push transparency and market integrity; Healthcare Demand: Standalone health insurers in India kept outgrowing diversified peers, with June premiums up 30.9% YoY; Tech & Supply: IDC said PC shipments fell 4.9% YoY in 2Q26 as memory shortages and pricing pressure hit demand; Business Finance: ReNerve secured a staged A$5m convertible note facility to fund US commercialization; SME Enablement: Al Salam Bank partnered with Procural to connect SME clients to procurement and tender opportunities.

Halal Trade Push (Malaysia): Malaysia’s MITI says its Halal Home Grown Champion Sourcing Partnership 2.0 backed 313 halal firms (including 158 Bumiputera- and 52 women-led) with RM187.91m in potential sales, while MATRADE prepares MIHAS 2026 (Sept 23-26) with 2,400 booths and 1,000+ MSMEs expected to benefit. AI + Healthcare Revenue (US): RipeGlobal and Subscribili link clinical training with in-office membership and scheduling to tackle the “case acceptance” gap for DSOs, targeting more conversions from uninsured patients. Markets & Geopolitics (IMF): The IMF kept Nigeria growth at 4.1% (2026) but warned higher essentials prices will worsen poverty and food insecurity; globally it trimmed 2026 growth to 3% amid Middle East energy shocks partly offset by AI-driven demand. Prediction Markets Under Pressure (US/UK): Kalshi faces setbacks in NY court over sports prediction markets, while World Cup betting volumes top $2bn across platforms—showing demand even as regulators tighten. Fast Payments & Inclusion (World Bank): Instant payments now reach 137 countries 24/7; the World Bank flags that impact depends on deep merchant and government embedding, not just adoption. Shipping Outlook (Global): Shipping markets weigh Hormuz uncertainty, longer routes, and orderbook pressure, with tankers holding up but container supply overhang worsening. Crypto Regulation (US): BitGo highlights potential upside from clearer US stablecoin and market-structure rules (GENIUS/CLARITY), which could pull global crypto activity toward compliant frameworks. Consumer & Retail Signals (US): Store brands keep gaining unit share—private label hit an all-time high 23.8% share, with beverages and refrigerated foods leading growth.

Housing & Lending Policy: Australia’s SMSF residential lending ban is forcing lenders and brokers to rethink supply flows, with the MFAA urging a clearer public narrative and expecting product innovation as brokers steer clients to alternative structures. Real Estate & Markets: In South Korea, policy support and the AI-driven semiconductor rally have pulled money toward apartments as investors worry about concentration risk and volatility in KOSPI. Regulated Betting & Prediction Markets: North Carolina raised its sports wagering tax to 23% and added a 6% prediction markets tax, while Polymarket pushes a more disciplined onshore pitch to win back US trust. Energy & Geopolitics: Oil spiked on renewed US-Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz, dragging Sensex/Nifty and weighing on Europe’s risk mood. Industrial Growth: Namibia courts Chinese investment for green industrialisation beyond raw exports, while Dangote moves ahead with a $17bn Kenya refinery plan to cut East Africa’s fuel import dependence. Tech & Infrastructure: Amazon returned to bond markets for at least $25bn to fund AI data centres and custom silicon, and India’s power grid challenge is shifting from capacity to flexibility as solar strains intraday ramps. Business & Consumer Trends: Cyprus hybrid cars now lead new registrations, and Shenzhen’s Grade-A office market is recovering as hard-tech and AI firms lease more space.

SpaceX Index Move: SpaceX officially entered the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday, a fast-track inclusion expected to pull in index-tracking fund buying and broaden retail exposure. Crypto Regulation Push: The SEC added three crypto-related rule proposals to its 2026 agenda (assets, broker-dealers, and market structure), while Congress debates the CLARITY Act. Carbon Market Clash: A California environmental group sued CARB over changes to the state’s cap-and-invest carbon program, alleging rushed approval and inadequate environmental review. Energy & Commodities: Ohio signed a carbon capture bill aimed at expanding markets for Ohio corn via lower-carbon ethanol pathways, while grain traders stayed focused on heat risk and Strait of Hormuz shipping concerns. Renewables Forecast: MarketsandMarkets projects onshore wind growth to $321.14B by 2035, supported by bigger turbines, grid upgrades, and repowering. Biotech Update: Vera Therapeutics won accelerated FDA approval for Trutakna in IgA nephropathy, with long-term benefit still to be proven. India Retail Growth: Q-commerce in India is forecast to grow 40% YoY in 2026 as dark-store networks expand. Agribusiness Local Momentum: Ghana’s GOIL highlighted stronger sales performance amid intensifying downstream fuel competition, while Bangladesh reported ~45% YoY FDI inflow growth in 2025.

Medical Tech Demand: Medical alert systems are projected to nearly double from US$13.1B (2026) to US$27.3B by 2033 as GPS, wearables, and fall detection support aging-in-place. Hearing Care Growth: Hearing aids are forecast to rise from US$7.8B (2026) to US$13.1B by 2033 on digital upgrades and better access to care. Market Strategy for Volatility: A “bucket strategy” pitch urges investors to hold 6–18 months of living costs in cash to avoid forced selling during downturns. UK Consulting Slowdown: The UK consulting sector is forecast to grow ~6% in 2026, down from near-9% earlier, as domestic clients prioritize cost efficiency while overseas work stays stronger. Saudi Construction Rebound: Saudi construction activity accelerated in June, with the Alrajhi Capital index above 50 for a second month, led by residential and non-residential starts. ASEAN Payments Expansion: M-DAQ Global integrates METech to build a Vietnam payments footprint, aiming to reduce reliance on third parties and speed cross-border flows. Crypto/Policy Risk: Korea faces mounting pressure to delist single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung and SK hynix after risk warnings and market turbulence. Oil Watch: Oil prices edged up as traders weigh rising supply against demand outlook, with Middle East tensions still a factor. EV Micro-Momentum (India): Electric three-wheelers in India hit a record June, up 27% YoY to 77,448 units, with EV penetration steady around 64%.

Energy & OPEC+: Oil prices settled near pre-Iran-war levels as OPEC+ approved another output increase and Strait of Hormuz exports recovered, keeping markets focused on US-Iran shipping talks. US Economy & Labor: The US services sector cooled in June while employment rebounded; job growth slowed and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but participation concerns linger. Housing (Canada/UK/Australia): Canada’s finance minister defended bigger deficits to fund growth; in British Columbia, a “phantom recovery” story points to household anxiety despite easing rates; in the UK, June car registrations hit the strongest since 2019 with EV momentum; Australia’s housing is cooling, raising the risk of broader slowdown. AI, Tech & Markets: Chip stocks led a US rebound; Malaysia lifted 2026 GDP growth forecasts on exports and AI-linked investment; insurance claims are getting more complex and costly. Crypto & Trading: Bitcoin bounced back after Strategy’s sale; SpaceX IPO/lockup talk resurfaced as traders watch a potential massive share supply wave; prediction markets and meme-token launches kept attention on speculative growth. Corporate & Capital Markets: Medtronic is leaning on R&D and acquisitions; SalesCloser starts OTCQB trading; Roblox faces a securities class action tied to age-check rollout impacts. Consumer & Mobility: India’s EV adoption appears to be nearing an inflection point as EVs move from secondary to primary vehicles.

Renewables & Power Markets: Wind turbine generator demand is set to surge, with Europe leading the 2025 share and the global market forecast to hit $42.9B by 2033 (9.3% CAGR). Consumer Appliances: Ceiling fans keep climbing too, with Asia-Pacific dominating and the market projected to reach $19.2B by 2033. EV Infrastructure (Korea): Chaevi is rolling out highway fast chargers, adding 138 units across 27 service areas, as EV sales accelerate. Tourism (Korea): Busan is emerging as a global tourism hub, projecting 4M annual visitors after a sharp rise in foreign arrivals and spending. Markets & Macro (US/Russia): The S&P 500 cooled in June but remains positioned for more gains; Russia’s market outlook hinges on a geopolitical breakthrough as sentiment stays mixed. AI & Finance: The UK FCA says AI could reshape financial advice by 2030, targeting the advice gap while raising new regulatory issues. Housing & Policy: Doubts grow over housing affordability fixes, with debate focused on whether foreign-buyer bans can move the needle. Sports/Betting Tech: World Cup prediction markets keep expanding, with regulators and platforms under pressure. Business/Real Assets: UAE real estate stays strong in H1, while Edinburgh office demand is shifting toward “certainty” via fitted-out space.

AI & Data Center Capex: Investors are weighing whether mega-cap AI spending can keep powering earnings, with one view pointing to capex rising sharply in 2026 as GPU demand outstrips supply. Markets & Cash: US money market funds hit a record $7.95T on $47.7B inflows, a sign investors are parking in cash as Fed expectations shift. Crypto & Tokenization: Solana added ~2M new addresses and saw surging on-chain activity, while tokenized equities volumes and meme-token/prediction-market hype keep pulling attention. Defense Industrial Base: A NATO summit backdrop spotlights the need to turn higher defense budgets into real industrial capacity, not just spending targets. Policy & Trade: The India-UK free trade deal is framed as a growth tailwind for SMEs and startups as it enters into force mid-July. Real Estate: UAE property remains strong with sales and transaction growth, while New York’s rent-stabilization freeze highlights how regulation can choke supply. Sports Betting/Prediction Markets: Utah lawmakers warn “prediction markets” are gambling in disguise, even as World Cup promo-driven trading bonuses keep fueling demand. Regional Equity Pulse: Nigeria’s NGX fell 1.21% as investors took profits despite higher turnover. Accessibility Software: A market forecast pegs digital accessibility software at $1.58B by 2035 (6.82% CAGR), driven by compliance and inclusion rules. Oil Macro: Falling crude prices give Asian central banks more room, though policy paths won’t be uniform.

India-UK Trade Boost: The UK India Business Council’s Kishore Jayaraman says the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement will lift bilateral trade, investment and SME scaling as it enters into force July 15. Markets Watch: Indian equities this week hinge on crude oil, global cues, monsoon progress, foreign flows and TCS’s June-quarter results on July 9, with investors scanning demand, margins and AI opportunities. Higher Ed Funding Pressure: South Africa’s NSFAS shortfall is pushing the government to explore new fee-free funding mixes, including more Seta funding and public-private partnerships, as enrolment targets rise. Gold Outlook Shift: JPMorgan cut near-term gold forecasts on weaker demand and Fed rate risks, while still expecting support from central banks and physical demand later. Crypto Meets Sports: World Cup knockout games are driving surging prediction-market and fan-token activity, with Polymarket volumes and Chiliz-linked tokens spiking. Housing & Real Estate: Cyprus property faces a sustainability test as affordability and planning pressures rise; in India, UCBs are urged to grow faster to stay relevant amid digital banking expectations. Energy & Shipping: Saudi non-oil private sector momentum improved in June, while coal shipments jumped on stronger China demand and LNG tightness.

Small-Business Finance Push: Malaysia’s Agrobank says it collected RM8m+ in financing applications after outreach at Sabah night and farmers’ markets, targeting working capital and expansion for hawkers and micro-entrepreneurs. AI Cybersecurity Upside: Palo Alto Networks surged on expectations of higher AI-agent-driven security spend, boosted by its $25bn CyberArk deal, though analysts flag near-term risks. Emerging-Market Debt Call: Goldman Sachs sees emerging market debt as a standout Q3 opportunity, citing yield premiums and better diversification as AI concentrates global portfolios. India Q-Commerce Surge: Anand Rathi Research forecasts India’s quick commerce to hit $60bn by FY31 (from $11.3bn in FY26), driven by rising users and non-grocery mix. Tokenized Equities Momentum: Micron’s tokenized stock perpetuals jumped to $13.16bn trading volume in May, reflecting a broader 40x surge in tokenized equities activity. Regulators vs Prediction Markets: ESMA warned that some EU prediction-market contracts can fall under the binary options ban for retail sales, regardless of branding. Crypto Macro Watch: Markets are bracing for US FOMC minutes after hawkish hints, with traders wary of tighter policy hitting risk assets. Vietnam Growth Beat: Vietnam’s Q2 GDP rose 8.4%, beating forecasts as manufacturing and construction held up despite import disruptions and higher fuel costs. Luxury Housing Resilience: New York’s pied-à-terre tax start hasn’t dented ultra-luxury demand, with signings above $20m and $10m–$20m segments rising year over year.

Defence IPO Watch: KNDS delayed its IPO, citing volatile markets tied to the Iran war and investor caution as Europe’s rearmament rush shifts demand toward cheaper drone-heavy systems. Crypto & Markets: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 10-day outflow streak with $221.7M inflows after weaker jobs data lifted sentiment, while Tim Draper denied moving BTC despite analytics linking a large transfer to Coinbase Prime. EU Rules on Prediction Markets: ESMA said binary-outcome prediction contracts can fall under the EU’s 2018 retail ban, regardless of branding, pushing traders toward properly authorized channels. Stablecoin Shake-up: Revolut will delist USDT across Europe by Aug 31, with phased buy/deposit cutoffs and auto-conversion for leftovers. Asia Growth & Tech Skills: Taiwan topped 21,000 sign-ups for its practical AI application planner certification, and Chery opened its first South African plant in Rosslyn to deepen local manufacturing. India Macro Signals: India’s services PMI slipped to a 17-month low as demand and hiring cooled, even as exports stayed a bright spot. Weather Disruption: Mumbai issued a Red Alert, closing schools and colleges amid extremely heavy rainfall and damage from a tree collapse at a major flower market.

Retail Restructuring: Morrisons is reinstating some Market Street meat and fish counters after earlier 2026 closures, while it continues to frame the move around value and sales momentum. Pakistan Macro Outlook: SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad says FY27 should bring stronger growth, lower inflation and better external accounts after FY26 growth around 3.7%, despite Middle East conflict and weaker agriculture. Trade & Food Exports: India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal says 40 MT of Varanasi biscuits have started shipping to Oman under India-Oman CEPA, with ~700 MT more planned for 2026-27. Banking & Jobs: Nigeria’s Edo State Governor Okpebholo backs Premium Trust Bank’s new Irrua branch as a boost for financial access, SMEs and employment. Power Demand Signals: IEX reports Q1 FY27 electricity trade volumes up 15.9% to 37,534 MU, driven by heatwave cooling demand and higher clearing prices. Housing Market Cooling: Research in Bulgaria says transactions are moderating into a stabilization phase, not a crash, with regional activity still rising. AI-Linked Real Estate Trend: In San Francisco, buyers are reportedly losing bids to sellers taking pre-IPO OpenAI stock, showing how AI wealth is reshaping home pricing dynamics. Labor Market Softening: The US added 57,000 jobs in June and unemployment fell to 4.2%, but labor force exits rose, pointing to a slower labor market. Energy-Metals Reset: Mining investors are shifting toward de-risked assets as valuation multiples reset, with gold/copper supported by critical minerals and policy push. Prediction Markets Under Scrutiny: ESMA and US regulators are tightening focus on prediction market rules, while Spotify faces allegations tied to music prediction manipulation.

U.S. Labor Market: June hiring slowed sharply (57,000 payrolls added), while unemployment fell to 4.2% as labor force participation dropped—raising fresh questions for Fed timing. India Services: HSBC’s India Services PMI slid to a 17-month low (57.4) as domestic demand weakened and hiring cooled, though exports stayed a bright spot. Oil & Costs: California gas prices fell for a fifth straight week to about $5.50/gal as crude eased on U.S.-Iran deal hopes. Prediction Markets Backlash: A new PAC and Club for Growth spending spotlighted political use of “prediction markets,” while Spotify moved to curb artificial streams tied to Kalshi/Polymarket-style bets. Energy & Africa: Nigeria commissioned a major lithium processing plant, and Tinubu urged ECOWAS to shift from consuming to producing. South Africa Fuel Shift: ADNOC is reportedly preparing to buy Shell’s ~600-station network, signaling BRICS-linked downstream expansion. Markets & Housing: GTA home sales rose 9.4% YoY in June as listings fell; Australia property momentum diverged by city. Tech/Auto: Tesla deliveries jumped 25% in Q2; Unitree Robotics cleared IPO registration on China’s STAR Market. Travel Demand: Expedia sees Asia-Pacific travel growth led by China for inbound and outbound.

Labor Market Signals: US payrolls added just 57,000 jobs in June (below forecasts), while unemployment slid to 4.2% as labor force participation dropped to 61.5%, keeping the labor picture “stable but weird” for job seekers. Data Centers & AI Power Limits: Singapore operators are pushing cooling efficiency harder as AI and high-performance workloads raise power demand, with humidity and sensor/telemetry gaps making optimization tougher. China Auto Upmarket Shift: China’s auto market is diverging—entry-level sales soften while mid-to-high-end models gain—driven by subsidy and trade-in rule changes, fuel-price effects, and thresholds that push buyers upward. Healthcare Expansion: GMHBA is relocating and upgrading its South Barwon Medical Centre in Grovedale to a purpose-built hub combining GP, allied health, and on-site pathology. Nicotine Pouches Boost: The FDA issued modified risk orders for 20 Zyn products, allowing marketing as lower-risk than cigarettes, supporting continued growth in convenience retail. Office Market Stress in Houston: Houston’s high vacancy and financing constraints are fueling more demolition of obsolete buildings, as maintaining empty lots can beat keeping aging stock. FinTech Spotlight: Kuwait’s NBK was recognized as a leading enabler for the country’s FinTech ecosystem. Food & Lifestyle Trends: China’s bathhouse boom shows leisure formats evolving into 24-hour social and wellness destinations. Market Listings: Cumberland Farms filed for a US IPO, adding to a revived summer pipeline as conditions improve.

BESS Supply Chain: Wood Mackenzie says Chinese system integrators captured 76% of the global BESS integrator market in 2025, with competition shifting from scale to grid-forming tech, software optimization, and financing support. Energy Markets: Shell forecasts global LNG demand to rise about 65% by 2050 to nearly 700 million tonnes a year, while 2026 trade stays roughly flat as shipping disruptions ease. EU vs China Trade: Goldman warns Europe’s growth drag is driven more by China winning “third-market” share than by the bilateral trade gap, especially in transport equipment and industrial machinery. Malaysia Macro Outlook: IPP Financial Advisers keeps Malaysia’s 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.6%, citing resilient domestic demand and AI/data-centre investment. US Market Calendar: Wall Street closes July 3 for Independence Day and reopens July 6. Retail Demand Signal (HK): Hong Kong retail sales rose 7.9% in May, extending a 13-month streak, helped by mainland visitor inflows. India Autos Shift: Bajaj’s petrol growth lagged while its EV push accelerated, highlighting a widening split between ICE and electrification strategies. Nigeria Equities: Nigeria’s NGX saw another heavy sell-off, with profit-taking wiping about N2.39tn off market value. Corporate Moves: Valmet completed its Severn Group acquisition to expand flow control and severe-service capabilities. Wealth Advisory (Singapore): Great Eastern won MAS approval to let accredited advisers advise on securities and structured products for HNW clients. Tech/AI Finance: Meta shares jumped on plans to sell AI compute, stirring cloud-market expectations.

Macro Watch: Global markets were steady as investors digested central-bank chatter at the ECB’s Sintra forum, with the Fed’s Kevin Warsh signaling no “forward guidance” while US manufacturing stayed near a four-year high but with softer prices paid; ADP showed private payroll growth of 98k in June, below forecasts, ahead of the official jobs report. AI & Credit: Amundi’s Guy Stear argues market drawdowns may be capped around 15% in the AI era, while Wall Street debate continues over whether hyperscaler borrowing is crowding out Treasuries—so far corporate bond spreads look resilient. UK Listings Pressure: Peel Hunt warned of “rapid depopulation” in London as takeover bids dwarf new IPOs, with more UK firms choosing US listings. US Finance Product Push: SoFi launched small-business loans, and MeridianLink named new revenue and transformation chiefs to accelerate AI-led growth. Cloud Competition: Meta is reportedly planning to sell surplus AI compute, potentially turning it into a direct cloud rival. Trade & Agriculture: USMCA talks continue after the US said it won’t renew the deal in its current form, while corn growers urged targeted improvements; Irish agricultural machinery sentiment in 2026 looks upbeat mainly on grassland demand. Regional Growth: COMESA seeks deeper Tunisia integration to boost trade and investment, and Nigeria’s Shettima urged states to unlock local growth. Consumer/Industry Forecasts: Citrus flavors are projected to grow to $2.3B by 2033; electric vehicle rentals to $34.6B by 2033; and multiple healthcare/automation market reports point to continued expansion.